Development trend and prospect of new consumption

Abstract: New consumption is a systematic change in consumption mode and content in the era of digital economy. In the process of accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, the development trend of new consumption demand, mode and environment is undergoing new changes. Driven by deep industrial transformation and upgrading, revolutionary technological breakthroughs and innovative allocation of production factors, new consumer demand is becoming more intelligent, consumption patterns are moving towards "platform+ecology", and the new consumption environment is continuously optimized. It is necessary to further comprehensively deepen reform as the driving force, accurately grasp the interdependent relationship between new quality productivity and new consumption, and promote the mutual promotion and two-way empowerment of new quality productivity and new consumption. It is necessary to actively seize opportunities and create a new scene of new consumption with new quality productivity; It is also necessary to give full play to the traction of new consumption on new quality productivity and realize a two-way virtuous circle of developing new quality productivity and expanding new consumption.

[Keywords:] new quality productivity, new consumption, systematic change [Chinese library classification number] F124 [document identification code] a

The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference held on September 26th, 2024 proposed: "We should cultivate new consumption formats." Under the background of digital economy, the wide application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies has greatly broadened the boundaries of consumption, making consumption personalized, intelligent and convenient, which has spawned an important economic phenomenon of new consumption. New consumption not only meets consumers’ growing demand for high quality and diversification, but also promotes industrial transformation and upgrading and the transformation of economic growth mode. As a new stage of productivity development, new quality productivity is the product of deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial transformation. Emphasizing the improvement of total factor productivity and the optimal allocation of production factors is the key force to promote high-quality economic and social development. Scientific and technological innovation, industrial transformation and factor allocation are all closely related to consumption development. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the development trend and prospect of new consumption under the background of new quality productivity for grasping the new trends and opportunities in the consumption field in the digital economy era.

New consumption is a systematic change in consumption mode and content in the era of digital economy.

New consumption is a symbolic economic behavior in the era of digital economy. Different from the traditional single consumption mode or format, new consumption is a brand-new paradigm of consumption activities: relying on big data as the core production factor, relying on digital technology as the driving force, and building a digital interactive interface, immersive scenes and personalized experience in an online and offline integrated mode, accurately docking and meeting the growing diversified service needs of consumers in the digital economy era. Under the background of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and the in-depth development of industrial transformation, various new consumption activities and formats spawned by the Internet and digital technology are effectively reshaping the pattern of the consumer market. This change is not only the upgrading of consumption means, but also a systematic change in consumption methods and contents.

In terms of consumption patterns, new consumption shows the characteristics of online and offline integration, personalization and socialization. In terms of online and offline integration, traditional consumption patterns are often limited to offline physical stores or online e-commerce platforms, while new consumption has broken this boundary and achieved seamless connection between online and offline. For example, the new retail model introduces online traffic into offline stores through data-driven and technology empowerment, and at the same time uses the experience advantages of offline stores to attract customers back online, forming a closed-loop consumption ecology. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, 2024, China’s online retail sales reached 8.38 trillion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 7.01 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, which indicates that online and offline integration is increasingly becoming a new consumption mode. In terms of personalization, the digital economy provides powerful data processing and analysis capabilities, making personalized customization a new form of consumption. By collecting and analyzing consumers’ purchase history, browsing behavior, hobbies and other data, enterprises can accurately push goods and services that meet their needs. For example, the e-commerce platform uses the AI algorithm for intelligent recommendation to provide consumers with a personalized shopping experience. In addition, with the maturity of 3D printing, virtual reality and other technologies, consumers can participate in the product design process to achieve personalized customization. In terms of socialization, the integration of social media and e-commerce platforms in the digital economy era has formed a new trend of social shopping. When consumers buy goods,More inclined to refer to user reviews, talent recommendations and community discussions on social media. This way of shopping based on trust and word of mouth makes influence marketing an important means of enterprise marketing. Enterprises attract and retain consumers by cultivating key opinion leaders (KOL) and building community culture. For example, new marketing methods such as live broadcast with goods and short video marketing use the communication power and influence of social media to realize the rapid sales of goods and the efficient spread of brands.

In terms of consumption content, digital consumption, green consumption and healthy consumption have become the main types of new consumption. The Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the High-quality Development of Service Consumption issued in August 2024 defined the main types of new consumption as digital consumption, green consumption and healthy consumption, and defined the basic scope of new consumption. Digital consumption is a new consumption trend led by technological innovation. The feasibility of consumer technology enhances the accessibility of consumer content. With the help of mobile Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other technologies, new formats such as unmanned retail stores, live delivery and social e-commerce have established quick links between customers and commodities, enabling consumers to break through the time and space constraints of traditional consumption and complete consumption behavior through online platforms anytime and anywhere. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2024, the retail sales of communication equipment in China’s above-designated units increased by 12.7% year-on-year, which fully reflected the strong growth momentum of the digital consumer market. Green consumption is a new consumption trend under the concept of sustainable development. The core idea of green consumption is to promote resource conservation and environmental protection, which is the concrete practice of the national "double carbon" strategy in the field of consumption. On the demand side, consumers’ green awareness has accelerated. According to the Report of China Residents’ Consumption Trend (2023), 73.8% of consumers will give priority to green and environmentally friendly products or brands in their daily lives, which shows that the concept of green consumption is gradually taking root in people’s hearts and becoming the conscious choice of more and more consumers. On the supply side,Enterprises actively promote the green transformation of development mode and optimize industrial structure. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, up by 35.8% and 37.9% respectively, and the market share reached 31.6%, reflecting that green consumer goods represented by new energy vehicles have become an important supply direction of the market. Healthy consumption is a new hot spot of consumption under the enhancement of health consciousness. The public’s demand and willingness for healthy consumption are constantly improving, and the scale of the healthy consumption market is constantly expanding. The Report on the Development of Consumption Trends of Health Industry released by China Consumers Association shows that the total income of China’s big health industry will reach 9 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting the huge potential and rapid growth trend of the health consumption market, and health consumption has become a very dynamic market segment in new consumption.

Development trend of new consumption demand, mode and environment driven by new quality productivity

At present, China is accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, and a number of emerging industries and leading industries with great influence have effectively driven high-quality economic and social development. This advanced productivity not only marks the fundamental change of economic growth mode, but also affects the pattern and trend of consumer market. Technology, factors and industry are the three factors that form the new quality productivity. According to the general principle of political economy, production determines consumption. As a new trend and an important part in the field of consumption, new consumption’s demand structure, transaction mode and market environment show a new development trend with the formation of new quality productivity.

The deep transformation and upgrading of the industry has promoted the new consumer demand to become more intelligent. The transformation and upgrading of industries to digitalization and intelligence is an important feature of new productivity. The development of emerging industries based on digitalization and artificial intelligence technology has significantly changed the production and lifestyle, and promoted new consumer demands such as digital consumption, green consumption and healthy consumption to become more intelligent. Digital technologies such as virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are widely used in games, education, medical care, shopping and other fields, providing users with an immersive interactive experience. Through VR and AR technology, users can experience various scenes and situations in an immersive way, and get a more real and vivid experience. The upgrading of related industries and product iteration have effectively driven the demand for consumer interaction and immersive experience to climb. According to 2023— According to China Artificial Intelligence Market Research Annual Report in 2024, in 2023, the artificial intelligence market in China reached 184.85 billion yuan, up by 10.5% year-on-year, covering medical care, education, finance and other fields. Take the smart home field as an example. According to the data released by International Data Corporation (IDC), the global smart home market has exceeded US$ 100 billion in 2023, and it is expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 20% in the next few years. Smart home products, such as smart speakers, smart door locks, smart lighting, etc., have realized remote control, voice interaction, automatic management and other functions based on artificial intelligence technology, greatly improving the convenience and comfort of living experience, thus stimulating consumers’ strong demand for smart home products. Besides,The deep transformation and upgrading of the industry has spawned new consumer demand, promoted the upgrading of the original consumption structure, and consumers’ demand for high-quality, high value-added products and services has been increasing. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of Chinese residents’ consumption expenditure in education, culture, entertainment and other fields has continued to rise in recent years, which reflects the trend of industrial transformation and upgrading to promote the development of consumption structure in a diversified and high-quality direction.

The revolutionary breakthrough of technology pushes the new consumption pattern towards "platform+ecology". The rapid development and wide application of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing have profoundly changed the face of new consumption patterns. New consumption patterns such as digital consumption, green consumption and healthy consumption have shown the development trend of "platform+ecology". The new consumption pattern of "platform+ecology" means that consumers, businesses, service providers and other parties are closely connected together through data-driven and technology empowerment based on the Internet platform to form an ecosystem of symbiosis and common prosperity. This model has two characteristics: one is data cross-border integration. According to the National Data Resources Survey Report (2023), in 2023, China’s total data production reached 32.85ZB, the total data storage reached 1.73ZB, and the total computing power reached 230EFLOPS, ranking second in the world. These data show that China has become a big data country, and the development of the new consumption pattern of "platform+ecology" has a solid data foundation. Through the collection and analysis of massive data, the platform provides accurate insight into consumer needs and personalized marketing and service solutions for merchants. Based on data sharing, the platform breaks down industry barriers and promotes cross-border cooperation and integration in different fields and industries. The second is ecological symbiosis. All parties on the platform depend on each other and promote each other, forming a benign interactive ecological cycle. For example,E-commerce platform helps merchants access the platform quickly and realize digital transformation by opening API interface and providing technical support. At the same time, the platform also actively cooperates with partners such as logistics companies and financial institutions to jointly create an efficient and convenient shopping experience.

Innovative allocation of production factors promotes the continuous optimization of new consumption environment. The important driving factor for the formation of new quality productivity is the optimal combination and upgrading of productivity factors, which is not only the key to the internal power transformation of the economic system, but also the engine to promote profound changes in the consumption environment. Under the innovative allocation of production factors, the environmental factors of new consumption such as digital consumption, healthy consumption and green consumption are continuously optimized. The first is the diversification of consumption choices. The innovative allocation of production factors, especially the application of big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, enables e-commerce platforms to make accurate user portraits and personalized recommendations based on multi-dimensional data such as users’ browsing history, purchase records and search behaviors. This personalized recommendation system based on big data not only improves the shopping efficiency of users, but also greatly enriches the choice space of consumers. The second is the optimization of consumption experience. Intelligent customer service and unmanned retail are typical applications of innovative allocation of production factors in the optimization of consumption experience. Intelligent customer service system can realize intelligent interaction with consumers through natural language processing technology, quickly answer consumers’ questions and provide convenient shopping guidance. Unmanned retail has realized the functions of automatic sales and automatic settlement through technologies such as Internet of Things and face recognition, providing consumers with a more convenient and efficient shopping experience. The third is the cultivation and upgrading of consumer culture. The innovative allocation of production factors has effectively promoted the deep popularization of green consumption culture. With the continuous breakthrough of clean energy and low-carbon technology,It has formed a full chain development model of green production, green circulation and green consumption, and consumers pay more attention to the environmental protection performance of products. According to the market survey of China Consumers Association, about 80% of consumers expressed their willingness to buy green products, which shows that under the innovative allocation of production factors, green consumption has become a common consumption culture.

Practical Path of Promoting Two-way Empowerment of New Quality Productivity and New Consumption

New quality productivity provides high-quality products and services through technological innovation and industrial upgrading to meet the needs of new consumption; New consumption guides and feeds back market demand by stimulating market vitality and consumption potential, and promotes the continuous optimization and promotion of new quality productivity. It is necessary to accurately grasp the interdependence and interaction between new quality productivity and new consumption, take further comprehensive deepening of reform as the driving force, and promote the mutual promotion and two-way empowerment of new quality productivity and new consumption. On the one hand, we should take the opportunity of developing new quality productivity, conform to the trend of new technological revolution and industrial change, and create a new scene of new consumption. On the other hand, we should give play to the traction role of new consumption, lead technological innovation and industrial transformation with new consumption, promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial chain and supply chain, and better empower the development of new quality productivity.

Shaping the future scene of new consumption with new quality productivity. The future scene of new consumption is the system integration of new consumption formats, new models and new products. In June 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Measures on Creating New Consumption Scenes and Cultivating New Growth Points of Consumption", which further encouraged the development of new consumption and released the consumption potential, and made clear guidance for the future scenarios of new consumption. It is necessary to conform to the development trend of new quality productivity and actively apply cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, biotechnology and new energy to shape the future scene of new consumption.

First, efforts should be made to form new scenes of digital consumption, such as empowering cultural tours, immersive experiences and new retail formats. In terms of empowering cultural tourism, it is necessary to accelerate the digital, networked and intelligent development of the cultural and tourism industries. Through cloud exhibitions, webcasts, cloud broadcasts and other services, we can promote the innovative development of online and offline integration and activate the new format of cultural tourism. In terms of immersive consumption experience, we should pay attention to the use of virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (MR) and other technologies to create a space combining virtual and practical based on cultural IP, and develop online products and services such as "virtual home layout" and "virtual fitting" to provide the public with a brand-new immersive shopping consumption experience. In terms of new retail formats, new shopping methods such as instant retailing have broken the offline and online value division under the development of traditional retail models and filled the "vacuum zone" of resource integration. It is necessary to explore and promote the instant retail platform, and encourage technological innovation and model innovation to promote the digital transformation and upgrading of the retail industry.

Second, vigorously cultivate new healthy consumption growth points such as high-end medical care, digital twin technology, medical equipment and supplies. In terms of high-end medical care, with the continuous growth of China’s economy and the continuous improvement of residents’ income level, the people’s demand for healthy consumption has been escalating. According to the Analysis Report on Market Concentration and Enterprise Competition Pattern of High-end Medical Service Industry in China in 2024, the market scale of high-end medical service in China has reached 556.7 billion yuan in 2023, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next few years. This trend indicates that high-end medical services will become an important growth point of healthy consumption. It is necessary to accurately connect the emerging technologies spawned by new productivity with the health consumption needs of the masses, actively explore the application of cutting-edge medical technologies in high-end health fields such as disease prevention, diagnosis, treatment, health consultation and health management, and promote the development of related industries to meet the health consumption needs of the masses. As a cutting-edge information technology, digital twinning technology can build a digital model of patients or medical equipment, and realize accurate medical treatment and efficient management. It is necessary to seize the opportunity of technological development, apply digital twin technology to smart hospitals, telemedicine, personalized treatment and other medical fields, and open up new medical service products and new scenes of healthy consumption based on digital twin technology.

The third is to focus on opening up new market segments of green consumption such as green and healthy catering consumption and green smart home appliances going to the countryside. In terms of green and healthy catering, with the continuous improvement of people’s health awareness, consumers pay more attention to the environmental protection of food sources and the sustainability of production process than before. It is necessary to strengthen the procurement and supply of green food, encourage catering enterprises to use green food raw materials, and ensure the quality and safety of food. It is necessary to guide enterprises to use artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and other technologies to optimize catering management processes and improve operational efficiency. For example, an intelligent supply chain management system can be adopted to optimize food procurement and inventory management and reduce costs and risks. In terms of green smart home appliances going to the countryside, China has issued a series of policies and measures to support green smart home appliances going to the countryside. The Notice on Doing a Good Job in Promoting the Consumption of Green Smart Home Appliances in 2023 jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and other four departments emphasizes that the trade-in of home appliances and green smart home appliances to the countryside should be further promoted. Enterprises should make full use of cutting-edge technologies such as quantum technology and artificial intelligence, improve the energy-saving and environmental protection performance and intelligent level of household appliances, and open up new market segments for green consumption. For example, the Internet of Things technology is embedded in smart home appliances to realize remote control, intelligent adjustment and other functions, improve the convenience of use, and open up a green smart home appliance IOT scene in rural areas.

Empowering the development of new quality productivity with new consumption as the traction. Marx pointed out in "Introduction to Criticism of Political Economy" that consumption creates new needs of production, thus creating the intrinsic motivation of production, which is the premise of production. It can be seen that consumption has a guiding and traction effect on production. As the product of the deep integration of digital economy and technological innovation, new consumption has triggered a fundamental change in the mode of production. It is necessary to promote the reconstruction and optimization of industrial chain, supply chain and value chain with new consumption as the traction, and make new consumption an important carrier to accelerate the development of new quality productivity.

First, expand the application space of cutting-edge technology with new consumption expansion increment. By creating new consumer demand and market space, new consumption provides a broad experimental field and application scenarios for new technologies and new products, which can effectively promote technological innovation and empower the development of new quality productivity. The expansion of new consumption volume and scope means the continuous increase and diversification of market demand. Diversified market demand provides continuous impetus for technological innovation, prompting enterprises to continuously develop new technologies and products to respond to market needs. When the new consumption reaches a certain scale, the application of cutting-edge technology will also achieve scale effect. It not only reduces the application cost of a single technology, but also improves the stability and reliability of the technology. In addition, large-scale application will also help to form technical standards and ecological systems, and further promote the popularization and development of technology. To this end, we should further encourage and guide the development of new consumption, reduce the cost burden of enterprises and consumers, and stimulate market vitality through financial subsidies, tax incentives, financing support and other means. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen infrastructure construction, give priority to investment in facilities with stronger consumption drive and greater multiplier effect, and jointly promote investment in new infrastructure and digital transformation of traditional facilities related to new consumption, so as to provide a strong guarantee for expanding new consumption.

The second is to promote the modernization of industrial chain with the optimization of new consumption structure. The optimization of new consumer demand, groups, formats and other structural elements can effectively lead the industrial chain to high-end, intelligent and green transformation and upgrading, promote the modernization of production methods and industrial chains, and promote the development of new quality productivity. The traditional industrial chain takes manufacturing as the core, while the new consumption structure takes consumer demand as the core, focusing on service, experience and personalization. This value-oriented transformation will promote the development of industrial chain in the direction of service, experience and personalization. Enterprises will pay more attention to brand building, service quality improvement and maintenance of consumer relations, and provide products and services with higher added value. At the same time, the structural transformation of new consumption digitalization and greening can stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, guide enterprises to invest funds and resources in key core technologies that can continuously respond to consumer demand, enhance their own innovation ability and production efficiency, and provide sustained endogenous motivation for China to solve the technical problem of "sticking neck". To this end, we should focus on deepening the demand-side structural reform and promoting the structural adjustment of consumption policies in view of the structural contradictions faced by the release of service-oriented consumption potential. By improving the quality and efficiency of service supply, we can meet the diversified and personalized needs of consumers. It is necessary to further increase support for the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises in consumer goods manufacturing and consumer services, guide and encourage enterprises to use digital technology to develop flexible manufacturing and intelligent production, and enhance their ability to respond quickly to market demand and flexibly switch production capacity.

The third is to promote the smooth flow of production factors with new consumption scene innovation. The innovation of consumption scenes is the "catalyst" for the development of new quality productivity. Under the traction of diversified new consumption scenes, various elements are combined with specific production processes in different combinations to promote industrial technology upgrading, transformation and upgrading. Creating new application scenarios through consumption, promoting scenario innovation, and in turn leading high-quality supply can play an "accelerator" role in the development of new quality productivity. The innovation of new consumption scenarios provides an important platform for the smooth flow of production factors. Under the traction of new consumption scenarios, all kinds of high-quality production factors are accelerated to gather in the innovation field, which has spawned a large number of new application scenarios. For example, new consumption scenarios such as VR experience, driverless driving and smart home not only satisfy consumers’ pursuit of high-quality life, but also promote the research and development and application of related technologies, providing strong support for the development of new quality productivity. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen policy support and guide enterprises to innovate consumption scenarios and upgrade technology. Increase the publicity and promotion of new consumption scenes, improve social awareness and acceptance, and form a good consumption atmosphere and market environment. At the same time, enterprises should be encouraged to increase investment in research and development, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into real productive forces, and promote the efficient combination and smooth flow of production factors.

On the whole, driven by the development of new quality productivity and the upgrading of consumer demand, the development trend of new consumption is improving and the prospects are promising. New quality productivity is becoming a strong kinetic energy to promote the development of new consumption, which can not only promote the innovation of consumption technology, but also promote the transformation of new consumption development mode and lead the new consumption market to develop in a more intelligent, personalized and efficient direction. The consumption potential of China’s super-large-scale market is expected to be continuously released under the dual drive of new quality productivity and new consumption. In the future, we should seize the development opportunity of new quality productivity, further deepen the supply-side structural reform, strengthen technological innovation and industrial upgrading, realize a two-way virtuous circle of new quality productivity development and new consumption growth, and provide solid support for high-quality economic and social development.

(The author is a professor, doctoral supervisor and director of the Institute of Public Policy of Lanzhou University.)

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Editor-in-Chief/Yin Bingyao Meibian/Li Xiangfeng

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