The ancients said, "Rise and fall are due to people’s livelihood". People’s livelihood is the key to the rise and fall of a country. In recent years, the number of newborns in China has dropped sharply, which indicates that a population crisis is coming quietly. Experts predict that if this trend continues, China will enter a period of serious population decline after 2024. This is undoubtedly a huge impact on all walks of life, especially the education industry. Facing the severe population situation, there will inevitably be three major changes in the education industry.
First, teachers will face the dilemma of increasing their tasks and not raising their salaries. The decrease in the number of students means that education funds are tight, and it is difficult for schools to continue to recruit more teachers. The cruel reality is that teachers in the editorial department are not only difficult to get a salary increase, but also face more work pressure. In order to improve the teaching quality, the school requires teachers to provide more after-school counseling. In order to take care of parents’ work and set up after-school care classes, teachers need to take extra care of students. It is conceivable that in the case of tight manpower, a teacher will undertake teaching tasks of multiple grades, and even need to take over non-professional courses such as physical education and music. The workload has greatly increased, the salary is still standing still, and the living conditions of teachers are comparable to "stretched".
Second, kindergartens and schools will generally face operational crisis. The number of newborns has dropped sharply, and the "blood" of educational institutions is shrinking. Take Shenzhen as an example, more than 120 public and private kindergartens have fallen into operational difficulties. The decline in fiscal revenue and the loss of teachers will inevitably damage the quality of teaching. Once the evaluation of a school by parents and society declines, the number of students will further shrink, and eventually face the risk of bankruptcy. This situation, from kindergarten to primary and secondary school system, can not escape bad luck. A kindergarten in a district is unsustainable, and the prospect of the whole education industry can be called "chaos."
Third, the phenomenon of involution in education may gradually weaken. In the past, it was a compulsory course for parents to fight for school districts and schools. In the booming education market, the demand for famous teachers is in short supply, but parents do not hesitate to fight for a chance. However, it is expected that by 2024, the situation of serious decline in students will be reversed. At that time, parents will lose the motivation of "buying a house at a high price for a prestigious school", and the price of the school district will return to rationality. Famous schools will no longer be overcrowded, and educational resources will be more balanced. All kinds of disadvantages accumulated in the process of "volume" will disappear in the cold winter of this education market. Students and parents will eventually have a breathing space, and education will return to the essence and return to "teaching and educating people".
The population problem is a national event. The grim population situation is bound to hit all walks of life hard, and we must face up to this hidden danger. The future development of education also faces many challenges. Let’s join hands to tide over the difficulties, turn the crisis into a turning point and create a new situation in education.
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