In the early morning of December 23rd, local time, Yariv Levin, Speaker of the Knesset, announced the dissolution of the Knesset and held a new general election in March 2021. Following the three general elections in April 2019, September 2019 and March 2020, the 23rd Knesset of Israel was automatically dissolved only seven months after being sworn in. Israel is about to face the fourth general election in two years, and Israeli politics is once again caught in the deadlock of division and reorganization.
The ruling Coalition has long existed in name only.
The current Israeli government is jointly formed by Likud Group and Blue and White Party. According to the coalition government agreement reached by the two sides in April this year, Netanyahu, leader of Likud Group, took the post of Prime Minister, and Benny Gantz, leader of Blue and White Party, took the post of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense for 18 months. By November 2021, Ganz took over as Prime Minister and Netanyahu became Deputy Prime Minister.
After the dissolution of Parliament on December 23rd, Netanyahu and Ganz accused each other of violating the ruling coalition agreement and dragged the country into a new round of elections.
However, for Netanyahu and Ganz, it is not in their own interest to hold a general election at this time. Although Netanyahu supports holding an early general election before the arrival of the "prime minister rotation period", his best election time should be the summer of 2021, because COVID-19 vaccine is expected to be vaccinated on a large scale in Israel at that time, which will become an important political achievement during Netanyahu’s administration; Netanyahu also hopes to pass the immunity bill during his administration to avoid corruption lawsuits; The forces of the "New Hope" party, which just rose a few days ago and was founded by Gideon Sa’ar, a former member of Likud Group, are also expected to be suppressed.
From Ganz’s point of view, the blue-white party he led had a dismal result in recent polls, and it has been reduced from the largest party last year to a marginal small party that can only pass the "election threshold" (editor’s note: the minimum proportion of votes required to enter the Knesset is currently set at 3.25%). Ganz’s own support rate has plummeted, and holding a general election at this time is tantamount to announcing the end of Ganz’s political career.
However, under the political dilemma of Israel, the current ruling alliance led by Likud Group and Blue White Party is unsustainable, and this "doomed" political alliance has long existed in name only.
Under the vigorous promotion of US President Trump, Israel made a major diplomatic breakthrough in 2020, and normalized relations with Arab countries such as UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. However, in most diplomatic practices, the main participants of Israel only include Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political allies, while the second Israeli politician Ganz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, who are also members of the Blue and White Party, are unable to get the latest information.
According to Israeli media reports, when Israel and the United Arab Emirates first held talks, Ganz and Aszkenazy did not know, and the main talks were handed over by Netanyahu to Ron Dermer, the Israeli ambassador to the United States; Ganz’s question about the relevant provisions of the agreement that the United States sells F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates has not received a clear answer from Netanyahu. In November, it is believed that Netanyahu held a secret meeting with Saudi Crown Prince mohamed ben salman and US Secretary of State Pompeo, and Ganz and Aszkenazy were once again blocked from the decision-making circle. Although Netanyahu had a telephone conversation with Ganz a few hours before he announced the normalization of relations with Morocco, he did not tell Ganz the contents of the normalization agreement, and Ganz learned the relevant information from the White House afterwards.
Among the most important recent diplomatic events in Israel, the so-called ruling coalition has been completely excluded, and it is ironic that the incumbent defense minister and foreign minister only learned about their latest foreign policy decisions from foreign governments.
On December 22nd, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a televised speech in Jerusalem. Xinhuanet
Instrumented Budget and Right-leaning Political Ecology
The current Israeli government is the "COVID-19 Cabinet" under the background of unsuccessful cabinet formation in two consecutive general elections and the widespread popularity of Covid-19 in China. It has the characteristics of temporality and compromise, and its multiple internal contradictions cannot be resolved through the ruling coalition agreement signed when the government was established.
The fuse of the breakdown of the ruling Coalition was that the national budget could not be passed in parliament.According to Israeli law, if the national budget cannot be passed before the deadline, the Knesset will be dissolved automatically. Therefore, the budget can be an effective tool to decide whether the ruling Coalition should be retained or abolished within a given time.The essence of the game between the two parties around the budget is whether the prime minister rotation system will be implemented.
Before the first budget deadline, Likud Group and Blue White Party could not reach an agreement on the national budget for the biennium 2020-2021, so they postponed the budget date to December 23 through agreement. Under the operation of Netanyahu and his close ally, Finance Minister Yisrael Katz, the budget was delayed. Israel’s Ha ‘aretz published several editorials in succession, bitterly mocking Ganz, believing that he naively trusted Netanyahu’s promise of "taking turns to govern", but Netanyahu played with him by rejecting the budget.
In December, the Likud Group and the Blue-White Party communicated many times on the relevant agreements on the new round of budget extension. However, due to the pressure of split within the party, the proposal to postpone the deadline again was ultimately rejected by 47 votes in favor and 49 votes against, which directly triggered the dissolution of the government and the beginning of a new round of general elections.
Israeli political forces and voters tend to "turn right" collectively, which is the deep reason why Likud Group and the center-left Blue and White Party cannot maintain their ruling alliance.The Palestinian-Israeli issue is no longer an important factor affecting the foreign policies of the Middle East countries. The recent signing of agreements on normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries has continuously reduced the diplomatic pressure Israel faces, and the "dove" ideology has increasingly lost its market in Israel, and its tough stance has become the choice of more Israeli voters.
The latest poll results show that Israel’s center-left forces, represented by the Blue and White Party and the Labor Party, are facing complete weakness. According to the current polls, the Blue and White Party can only get five parliamentary seats, and Ganz has lost the credibility of any leading party; Without Ganz as a potential replacement for Netanyahu, there is no reason for the Blue and White Party to continue to exist as a political entity. According to the current downward trend, the Blue and White Party is likely to be below the "election threshold" of 3.25% by the general election next March.
Similar to its fate, the Labour Party, which once had an absolute dominant position in Israel, did not even exceed the "election threshold" in all recent opinion polls. In sharp contrast, all the popular candidates for prime minister in the future are from right-wing parties, and right-wing parties such as Likud Group, YAMINA and New Hope Party account for the vast majority in the polls.
Multiple factors will affect the new round of general election.
Focusing on the new round of general elections in Israel, there are many uncertainties.First of all, one of the most obvious changes is that the traditional struggle between the right and the center-left has evolved into a struggle for votes within the right in this election.
Although Netanyahu and Ganz have fought hard in the past three elections, because Ganz’s supporters are mainly from the center left, Netanyahu can firmly unite the right-wing voters and consolidate the right-wing ticket warehouse by accusing him of being weak and "left". However, in this election, Netanyahu’s number one opponent, Gideon Sal, and his number two opponent, Naftali Bennett, are both right-wing leaders with strong appeal.
During the epidemic, Bennett’s ideas of supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and the plan for the unemployed to return to work won the hearts of the people. The support rate of the United Right Party led by him rose once in the polls in early December, and it may win 21 parliamentary seats and become a strong competitor of Netanyahu. Bennett pointed out that Israeli voters can be divided into three categories: center-left voters, Likud voters who can’t stand Netanyahu and hard-line right-wing voters, and he is concerned about the latter two groups.
However, on December 17th, a week before the dissolution of the government, Saar, a former Likud Party member, left to form a new political party "New Hope". Later, many members announced that they would join the party, which immediately reversed the situation and dispersed a large number of voters from Likud Party and United Right Party, ranking second in the latest poll results. From the ideological point of view, there is no fundamental difference between the United Right and the New Hope Party in their right-wing propositions. Both of them uphold the Great Israel proposition and believe that Jews have the right to settle anywhere in the "land of Israel" (editor’s note: Eretz Israel, the concept comes from the "promised land" given to Jews in the Bible, and in the current political context, it includes the areas where countries such as Israel and Palestine are now located), and reject the two-state solution.
On December 27, 2019, near Tel Aviv, Israel, Gideon Sal spoke to supporters after the election. Xinhua news agency
Facing the challenge from the right-wing leaders, Netanyahu is still continuing his consistent strategy, linking Saar with the opposition leader Yair Lapid and the left. Netanyahu said in Twitter, "Gideon Saar can only form a government with Lapid and the left wing, and there is no choice." The move aims to call back right-wing voters from the supporters of the New Hope Party. However, Lapid’s response shows that the center-left party intends to unite with the New Hope Party to jointly end Netanyahu’s re-election plan.
Secondly, at present, it is difficult for Netanyahu to enjoy the election bonus from the United States in the new round of general elections.
In Netanyahu’s three general elections in the past two years, Trump has repeatedly sent a "big gift" to Netanyahu. The close relationship with Trump has enabled Netanyahu to effectively play diplomatic cards in the three general elections.
However, the arrival of the post-Trump era means that Netanyahu’s previous election symbols and propaganda may become negative assets in this election. In the March 2019 election, Netanyahu made great efforts to publicize his "teaching" to Obama in election advertisements and how he told Obama why Israel could not return to the 1967 Palestinian-Israeli border. This election advertisement aims to show that Israel can resist American pressure and defend Israel’s interests.
However, after US President Joe Biden takes office next year, Netanyahu’s disagreement with the Democratic Party during Obama’s time has brought new diplomatic pressure to Israel, which makes Netanyahu face the accusation of undermining the "special relationship" between the United States and Israel. Biden wants the United States to rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal and resume diplomatic contacts with the Palestinians, which is contrary to Netanyahu’s consistent position.
Netanyahu’s lawsuit will also be an important factor in the future election.Three rounds of elections in 2019 and 2020, as well as the COVID-19 epidemic, delayed the proceedings in three cases of Netanyahu. As soon as the news of the dissolution of parliament in December this year was released, Ganz immediately tweeted that the purpose of Netanyahu’s bringing the country into a new round of elections was only to save himself from going to court.
If the trial of Netanyahu’s case is held as scheduled in February 2021, it will greatly damage his public image and credibility during the election. Once he fails in the general election in March, Netanyahu will not be able to avoid conviction by holding political posts, so the general election has become an important gamble for his freedom and political survival. Similarly, the three cases in which Netanyahu was prosecuted and the submarine case involving Netanyahu’s cronies will all become the focus of his political opponents and have an important impact on the election.
For Netanyahu, who is deeply involved in litigation, his most important concern at present is to obtain the immunity of working people through relevant bills. If he can’t win the general election, he may try his best to make use of the differences between the opposition parties to ensure that no one can form a government. Then Netanyahu will continue to be the caretaker prime minister after the failure of the new round of general elections until Israel holds the fifth general election in two and a half years.
Polls show that Netanyahu may find it difficult to form another cabinet.
After the dissolution of parliament, a new round of election campaign will last for 90 days. The latest poll results of Israel Channel 12 and Channel 13 are consistent. If the election is held now, Likud Group will get 28 to 29 seats, the second largest party, New Hope Party, will get 18 to 19 seats, the future party will get 16 seats, and the United right wing will get 13 to 14 seats. The "Joint List" of Arab political parties will keep 11 seats, and the religious party Shas Party and the Jewish Bible Union will get 8 seats each. "Israel is our home.
According to the current poll results, Netanyahu cannot rely on his traditional allies to form a Coalition government with more than half of the parliament or at least 61 seats. Likud’s alliance with Shas Party, Jewish Bible League and United Right can only reach 58 seats; If the parties opposed to Netanyahu unite, that is, if the New Hope Party, the Future Party, the "Israel is our homeland" Party, the Blue and White Party, and the Meretz Party form a political alliance with the "Joint List", they may get 62 seats to form a government.
According to the forecast of Channel 12, if Ganz and Aszkenazy quit the Blue-White Party, the party will not pass the election threshold, while the seats of Likud Group will increase to 30, and the future party will gain 19 seats and become the second largest party, while the New Hope Party will still retain 18 seats. In this case, the Likud Party, religious parties and the United Right will reach 59 seats, which is still not enough to form a cabinet; However, if the party opposed to Netanyahu forms a ruling Coalition with the "joint list", it will get 61 seats and can form a cabinet.
In these two cases, although Likud can still maintain the advantage of the largest party, its success rate in forming a cabinet is very low; The anti-Netanyahu alliance is strong in the polls and has a greater possibility of forming a cabinet.
In the interview, 38% of Israelis blamed Netanyahu for Israel being dragged into the fourth general election. Netanyahu has now become the longest-serving Israeli prime minister. Israel’s political dilemma is closely related to Netanyahu’s personal political dilemma, and it also reflects the overall trend of Israel’s continued right-wing politics in recent years.
(Natalie, Assistant Research Fellow, Center for Religion and China National Security Studies, Fudan University)
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